Germany buys expensive gas from all over the world: by ship from the USA, by pipeline from Norway. There are up to 2.3 trillion cubic meters of shale gas beneath German cities, fields and forests – enough to cover current annual consumption for over 20 years. In addition, there are around 450 billion cubic meters of coal seam gas.

However, to develop this gas, unconventional fracking would be necessary – which has been banned in Germany since 2017.

For comparison: at the beginning of March, the gas storage facilities in Germany were only 20.8 percent full. So the discussion about fracking is current again – but is it really a solution to the energy crisis?

What fracking actually is

Fracking is a processin which a mixture of water, sand and chemicals is pumped into deep layers of rock under extremely high pressure.

• The pressure creates microscopic cracks.
• The sand keeps these cracks open.
• The gas bound in it can flow to the surface through boreholes.

In Germany, a distinction is made between conventional fracking, which is used in porous sandstone and has been legal since the 1960s, and unconventional fracking, which takes place in dense slate and clay rock. The latter requires complex horizontal drilling over several kilometers and has been banned since 2017.

The fracking legislative package, which has been in force since February 11, 2017, originally stipulated that the Bundestag would review the appropriateness of the ban in 2021. This review has not yet taken place.

So much gas is lying dormant under Germany

The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has identified some of the potential for unconventional fracking in Germany Studies checked.

• The result is: It is estimated that 0.7 to 2.3 trillion cubic meters of shale gas are stored in the shale rocks of the North German Basin – especially in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia – as well as in parts of the Upper Rhine Graben and on the island of Rügen. In addition, there are around 450 billion cubic meters of coal seam gas.
• For comparison: Germany currently consumes around 84 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. Estimates are based on resources that could theoretically cover demand for 20 years or longer.

Difficult from an economic point of view

But is the risk even worth it? Several expert committees have already examined unconventional fracking. Most come to the conclusion that the environmental risks are manageable: based on current knowledge, earthquakes, groundwater pollution and methane emissions remain limited. Also the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and Environment shares this assessment, but warns that residual risks can never be completely ruled out.

Nevertheless, fracking would not be a game changer for German gas supplies. Experts estimate that at best six to twelve percent of annual consumption could be covered. There is also a crucial time problem: it would take at least five to nine years from planning to the first funding. Ifo economist Karen Pittel concludes: “Due to this limited period of time, an investment is difficult from a business perspective.”

Fracking: climate-damaging or climate-friendly?

Proponents emphasize that domestically produced gas is more climate-friendly than imported LNG, which has to be laboriously liquefied, transported and re-evaporated. In fact, this process consumes a lot of energy and generates additional CO2 emissions. A study by internationally recognized Professor Robert Howarth from Cornell University shows that US LNG from fracking actually has a 33 percent worse carbon footprint than coal.

Opponents such as environmental associations also point to methane leaks that can occur during fracking operations. Methane is around 80 times more powerful in the atmosphere than CO₂. Even small leaks could quickly cancel out the supposed climate benefits.

The political situation: Lots of discussion, little movement

The fracking debate has been gaining momentum again since the energy price shocks caused by the Ukraine and Iran wars. However, this has not yet led to a clear result. The new federal government has not yet reviewed the ban either, partly because of the political majority. Surveys also show that a clear majority of Germans remain skeptical about fracking.

Even if the ban were lifted tomorrow, scientists warn: years would pass before significant amounts of gas flow from domestic sources. Too long for an acute crisis, too short to economically justify investments.