For months, the Union and the SPD have been loud about the planned Citizens’ benefit reform argued. But now the new one could Basic security be passed in the Bundestag next week without any new coalition conflict. According to information from FOCUS online, the final vote in parliament is scheduled for March; it is currently scheduled for next Thursday, March 5th.

If there is then a majority, the social benefit not only gets a new name, the pressure on the benefit recipients is noticeably increased. If they skip appointments at the job center, their money can be cut off earlier than before. If the appointment is missed for the third time, payments can even be temporarily stopped completely.

The SPD had long resisted these tougher sanctions. In January, Annika Klose, spokeswoman for labor and social affairs, complained in the Bundestag that the rules in the draft law were “populist bullshit and potentially unconstitutional.”

The SPD shows two faces when it comes to the citizen’s benefit reform

But while some Social Democrats are still publicly criticizing the law of their own party leader and Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, behind the scenes they have come to terms with the citizen’s benefit reform. We have heard from social politicians that the committee recently only discussed detailed issues. There have been no major efforts by the SPD to ease the tightening measures in key areas.

The two faces of the party could have something to do with the mood in the SPD: On the one hand, many members and elected officials are hurt by the fact that they have to give in on a core issue. “With the traffic lights we introduced citizens’ money, only to now abolish it again with the CDU. That hurts,” says a parliamentary group member. Through pompous appearances like Klose’s, these Social Democrats should feel heard. “But we won’t stage a rebellion like the one the Union’s young group instigated when it came to pensions,” they say.

On the other hand, there are also many Social Democrats who admit that a reform of citizens’ benefit is necessary. In addition, some see the planned law as unstoppable anyway. This also explains why less than one percent has so far signed the SPD members’ petition against the reform, as the “taz” reports. But at least 20 percent would be necessary.

Rebellion in the Bundestag is no longer to be expected

This is not a strong mandate for the parliamentary group to incite an uprising. Left-wing SPD MPs regret this. After the vote, all they have to do is make a statement: They consider the citizen’s benefit reform to be wrong, but they finally agreed to peace in the coalition. Similar tones could be heard from the parliamentary group after the heating law reform, which was unfortunate for the SPD, was presented.

Even in the Union there is no longer any belief in an SPD rebellion against the new basic security. Instead, they are satisfied that the law will largely cover what was demanded during the election campaign.

Bas has to tremble: the second part of the reform has to go through the Federal Council

However, there is a certain unrest in the black-red coalition: If the law goes through the Bundestag, only the first part of the citizens’ benefit reform will be completed. Labor Minister Bas has broken the project down: into a law that does not have to go through the Bundestag and into a package that the state chamber has to approve. And she has to tremble for that.

Kai Whittaker, who is responsible for reform in the Union parliamentary group, warns in an interview with FOCUS online: “After the first package has been passed, we must quickly tackle the agreed second part of the new basic security.” The social politician assumes that this will be “politically more challenging than the first part”. “The federal states are also involved and it involves structural questions, for example how housing costs should be determined in the future in terms of basic security.”

The Federal Council is allowed to have a say in the end of citizens’ benefits for Ukrainians. This should also be decided by the Bundestag in March, but the state chamber has already expressed concerns. The coalition assumes that the states will only be appeased by more money from the federal government.

There are already initial ideas for the new rules for paying for accommodation for benefit recipients. The Welfare State Commission, in which politicians from the CDU/CSU and SPD were involved, has already made a recommendation: services should be combined and flat rates should be used more. But this can lead to individual cases being worse off compared to the previous complex regulation. For some Social Democrats, this could be a red flag.

Double complexity makes second part more challenging

In the eyes of social politicians, the fact that the second part of the reform will be more challenging than the first is due to its twofold complexity: On the one hand, there are an almost infinite number of possible options for accommodation costs, for example. Agreeing on what is acceptable to everyone could be more difficult than, for example, tightening the sanctions rules.

On the other hand, agreement on the second package will be more complex because more actors are involved. Because the Federal Council consists of many colorful state governments. Only the black and red parties alone do not have a majority in the state chamber. This means that the Greens, who are currently involved in seven governments, can have a say in the reforms.

Some social politicians warn: Only if an agreement is reached on the second part can the citizen’s benefit reform be considered a really big success.