The matter seemed clear for a long time. At the beginning of the year, the CDU top candidates in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate were far ahead in surveys. But just a few weeks before the state elections on March 8th and 22nd, 2026, the tension has increased.

Because the Greens in the southwest and the SPD in Rhineland-Palatinate have gained ground, the Christian Democrats’ once comfortable lead has shrunk massively. The CDU is still in first place in both countries. But the final order will now be decided in the final spurt.

Anything other than a victory would be a setback for the CDU federal chairman and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He is trying to claim policymaking authority against his coalition partner, the SPD, through good election results in the states.

Baden-Württemberg: From favorite to head-to-head race

In Baden-Württemberg, the CDU received 27 percent in the elections research group on Friday. The Greens are just behind with 25 percent. At Infratest Dimap, the difference between the CDU (28 percent) and the Greens (27 percent) the day before was only one percentage point.

Only in Baden-Württemberg do the Greens have a prime minister, Winfried Kretschmann, who governs there together with the CDU – but does not run again. One reason for the successful catch-up can be seen in the person of the Green top candidate Cem Özdemir – and in the strong personalization of the election campaign.

Özdemir was not only able to increase his vote in recent surveys, but also has a high level of national political awareness. At the same time, the 60-year-old former federal minister knows how to clearly distance himself from the basic left-wing sentiment of his federal party.

Old interview falls on Hagel’s feet

The 37-year-old CDU candidate for Prime Minister, Manuel Hagel, is the state chairman and parliamentary group leader of his party. But he never held a government office in the green-black coalition in Stuttgart.

That’s why the liberal-conservative newcomer Hagel is less well-known among the population than Özdemir, who led his Greens as the top candidate in the 2017 federal election campaign.

But now Hagel is suddenly under fire. Snippets of an old interview from 2018, in which he reported with a wink about a discussion with a secondary school class (“with a proportion of 80 percent girls; so there are worse dates than this for a 29-year-old MP”), were scandalized by the Greens shortly before the state elections.

Hagel has distanced himself

In particular, he was criticized for the description of a student named “Eva” who had “brown hair, fawn eyes” – although the interview shows that he did not want to discuss the girl’s attractiveness, but rather her initial skepticism towards politicians. During the group discussion, Eva changed her assessment.

Hagel himself distanced himself from entering the conversation. That “was crap,” he said, and his wife “washed his head straight away” after the TV show. What’s interesting is that in 2018, when the interview aired, no one appeared to be offended by Hagel’s statements.

Özdemir, on the other hand, scored points on social networks with pictures from his wedding to the lawyer Flavia Zaka. Former party colleague Boris Palmer was the best man.

The mayor of Tübingen avoided expulsion from the party in 2023 after he called for “realism in the refugee debate” and pointed out that Germany “does not have room for everyone”. The fact that Özdemir repeatedly includes Palmer in his election campaign is not seriously criticized by the Federal Greens, although they had previously described Palmer’s membership in the party as “unreasonable”.

Rhineland-Palatinate: Close duel with momentum for the SPD

The CDU’s lead has also melted in Rhineland-Palatinate. According to a current Infratest survey, the Christian Democrats with 28 percent are only very narrowly ahead of the SPD with 27 percent. The election will take place here on March 22nd.

SPD Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer has been in office since July 2024 and is therefore entering the race with the corresponding bonus. The CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder has been parliamentary group leader since April 2023, but is significantly less well-known.

While Schweizer emphasizes the importance of social mobility, investments and stable economic and labor market policies, Schnieder, whose brother Gordon is Federal Transport Minister, defines the long-lasting SPD government as a “standstill”. He calls for a policy that focuses more on reducing bureaucracy, efficiency and location advantages – also in order to attract skilled workers and strengthen rural areas.

Merz pointed out great opportunities

Chancellor Merz had repeatedly pointed out the great chances of having two state chancellories in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg captured by the Christian Democrats. That’s why the state elections have weight for the CDU at the federal level – and therefore also for Merz.

If the Christian Democrats achieve victories in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, this would be a strong signal that the Union has a stable basis despite the difficult federal political situation. Such a success could help Merz counter criticism within the party more sharply and convey the image of a recovered people’s party.

On the other hand, a lost lead, especially a tipping in Baden-Württemberg, would present Merz with a significant narrative problem: Can he not ensure sufficient voter loyalty and mobilization power to effectively implement the will of the voters? Especially in the not always harmonious coalition with the SPD at the federal level, this would be an issue in the “fight of interpretation” after the election.

This article was published in collaboration with The European .