Nobody is under as much pressure in Baden-Württemberg as the industrial workers. Thousands of jobs are being lost – “at Bosch”, “at Daimler”. It is the jobs of the working luxury class that are disappearing.

The SPD has maneuvered itself into the sidelines

For a party that has “social” in its name and can claim the emancipation of the proletariat as part of its history, this should be something like a penalty without a goalkeeper in an election. And yet it is not so, on the contrary.

The SPD has never been in such a bad situation as it is now, shortly before the polls open on Sunday. Because of “penalties without a goalkeeper” – the SPD has almost completely maneuvered itself into the sidelines.

The latest poll before the election The People’s Party previously measured eight percent. So just before the death zone. In the previous election it was the worst result in history – but at least they still reached double digits. Nobody needs to hope for that anymore – the comrade is a trend that is heading towards the bottom. And now the Social Democrats seem to be giving up on themselves – it’s hard to understand.

“We’ll all be happy when this is over on Sunday”

Juso chairman Daniel Krusic told the left-wing “taz” that people would be relieved when the election campaign tragedy was over. “We’ll all be happy when this is over on Sunday.”

The top candidate doesn’t have anything more to offer than depressive tones; his name is Andreas Stoch, and you’ll hardly have to remember his name.

“I work like a horse. But we’re clearly not being noticed.” Of all people, the working-class man got caught – in the middle of the election campaign – sending his driver across the French border to fetch pies. There is a video about it, and when it was broadcast, this was the moment when everything had actually already happened for Stoch and his SPD.

It was a huge mistake, as was the affability with which Stoch himself spoke about it to the camera. The candidate also openly admits it, told the “taz” that it should never have happened to him. But if you look closely, this incident was just the final nail in the coffin of a foreseeable funeral.

The SPD will not play a role in forming a government in Baden-Württemberg. That’s what CDU man Manuel Hagel and he do Green Cem Özdemir only among themselves. It only seems to matter which of the two becomes prime minister. There seems to be no way around the coalition of blacks and greens.

SPD top candidate capitulates

In a time of maximum uncertainty, this is a novelty. This is also questionable for a democracy. This creates a democratic deficit in East Germany because no one wants to govern with the AfD, which is seen as the first choice by more than a third of voters there.

In Baden-Württemberg, deep in the west of the republic, it is not a strong AfD that is producing this democratic deficit, but a weak SPD. And there seems to be a connection between the two, not only in the analysis of election researchers, but also in the opinion of the Social Democratic leader: “There are many in the workforce who believe the promises of the AfD out of fear of the future” – this also applies in North Rhine-Westphalia or Lower Saxony.

What Stoch says amounts to a single surrender. The left-liberal bourgeoisie – a strong section in Baden-Württemberg – has almost completely ceded the SPD to the Greens. And the majority of workers who were once social democratic and union-loving have migrated to the AfD.

1964, 1972, then again in 2001 – these were the strong years of the SPD. At that time, it got more than 35 percent or just less in the industrial model country. After that it just went steadily downhill. And Schröder’s social laws are by no means to blame for this, because it was no different with the CDU either, they just don’t talk about it. The state election curves for the years since 1952 run surprisingly parallel between the two traditional popular parties – except that there is a gap of around 15 to 20 percent between the parallel curves.

Great successes for the SPD in the federal government

The reason for the continuous decline of the popular parties since the mid-1980s is obvious: the steady rise of the Greens. They have long since become a people’s party in Baden-Württemberg. What the CDU can still handle because of its traditional size – but the SPD can no longer handle. The AfD now seems to be giving the Social Democrats the rest.

As can be seen in Baden-Württemberg, but now also in the other “workers’” state of North Rhine-Westphalia, social democracy is becoming increasingly weak. It’s outdated anyway.

In contrast, their actual political influence in Berlin has increased disproportionately. This is the new asymmetry of social democracy: a popular party with ever fewer people becomes a power party with ever more power. How long can something like this last? Because the trend seems unlikely to be reversed:

The SPD is turning into a head party without any foot soldiers.