This race to catch up is historic. In autumn, the Greens in Baden-Württemberg were 14 percent behind in polls. In the last week before the election, Cem Özdemir (60) caught up with Manuel Hagel (37) and the CDU – and overtook him in the photo finish. At least that’s what the early numbers on ARD and ZDF say this evening with the outcome still open.

You can marvel at a lesson in political communication. A veteran who has been washed with all the water and sewage of the political world has made significant gains. A talented rookie who and his team were not up to the rigors of a campaign final lost.

Five reasons were crucial for Özdemir’s victory:

The Green remained a gentleman throughout, let the matter rest and let the party’s internal internet cadres take care of the rest. 13 Green elected officials shared the video circulated by MP Zoe Mayer in the first few hours, including party leader Felix Banaszak.

Hagel’s Eva moment shot into the top league of political mishaps, on the scale of Laschet’s laughter. What followed was dirty: Hagel was branded a pedophile and made close to Jeffrey Epstein. He received several death threats.

2. Black or green? Not a question of faith

After 15 years with Winfried Kretschmann as Prime Minister in a green-black government, we are in Baden-Württemberg the ideological boundaries between conservatives and environmentalists have been softened. After the SPD’s descent into insignificance, the political center has long been represented by the CDU and the Greens.

Given the lack of alternatives, it seems clear that they will govern together again. What remains to be clarified for the moderate audience is under whose leadership. These are ideal conditions for a personality choice – with clear advantages for the much better known and more experienced Cem Özdemir.

3. Hardliner with a soft appearance

Cem Özdemir has managed to square the circle in the migration debate. He has clearly positioned himself as a security thinker with little tolerance for immigrant criminals, without making this issue the focus of the election campaign. Because he knows: That would have meant even greater state gains for the AfD.

How did the son of Turkish immigrants manage to do this? Early on, in September 2024, he called for a reversal in migration policy through a personal and highly regarded article in the “FAZ”. His daughter was also exposed to sexual harassment in Berlin by young men with a migrant background.

Later in the cityscape debate, he warned against “crime as a lifestyle.” And shortly before the election, he and his Albanian-Canadian wife left von Tübingen’s riot mayor Boris Palmer – a smart fuck you towards the green establishment.

4. The Merz penalty

Hanging in Baden-Württemberg 500,000 jobs in the auto industry. How good a tailwind from Berlin would have been for Manuel Hagel: an improving economy, the impression that the mood in the economy is changing. None!

Instead, there were only loud voices from middle class representatives against the Chancellor’s vaguely social democratic course. At the same time, Hagel was unable to make his plans for a transformed high-tech state of Baden-Württemberg an issue.

5. The Cem Momentum

We know from research that undecided voters like to be on the winning side of close decisions. Manuel Hagel has recently been talking almost exclusively about negative news. To make matters worse, he then went to a comprehensive school – accompanied by the ARD – lured into another mishap by a left-wing teacher.

Cem Özdemir just had to watch and relax last week, go jogging with his fans in Stuttgart for Instagram and easily run past the stumbling hail to the finish.