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After Iranian missiles were intercepted by NATO on the way to Turkey, the question arises: Could President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declare an alliance?
Alexander Görlach, geopolitics expert and adjunct professor at New York University, classifies Turkey’s role in an interview with FOCUS online.
Erdoğan as a hinge power
The Türkiye has played a mediating role between Western states and the Islamic world for decades. “Turkey has played a certain pivotal role between the West (…) and the Islamic world for some time now, for decades,” explains Görlach. Erdogan uses this position strategically: “I am on your side as a Turkish, Islamic state leader, but at the same time I also have NATO behind me.”
Erdogan’s balance between NATO and his own politics
Officially, Ankara remains neutral. But Görlach emphasizes: “It’s really a very tricky situation, because Mr. Erdoğan has (…) let a very strong criticism of Israel shine through.” Erdoğan positions himself as an advocate for the Palestinians and wants to act as a spokesman for the Arab world, but at the same time he must respect his NATO obligations.
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Security interests and refugee risks for Turkey
Safety and stability aspects play a major role. Görlach points to the refugee situation: “There are four million Syrian war refugees living in Turkey. That means a destabilization of Iran (…) would mean a wave of refugees to Turkey. That is of course also something that Mr. Erdoğan absolutely wants and must prevent.”
Erdogan’s long-term geopolitical goals in the Middle East
In the long term, Erdoğan wants to position Turkey as a middle and hinge power between East and West. “On the whole, this conflict will not change anything about Turkey’s orientation as a middle power (…),” explains Görlach. At the same time, Erdoğan wants to show that he can play a role in the region, even if it remains unclear how active he wants to be.
NATO alliance case: Erdoğan could take action
A particularly sensitive issue is the possible NATO alliance. Görlach compares: “The Philippine President said that he would declare a fall of the alliance if a Filipino soldier were killed for the people of the Philippines.” Applied to Turkey, this would mean that attacks on Turkish citizens or civilian targets could force Erdoğan to act. “Then you would have to see that we have enough NATO partners who are already involved in this in one way or another War activities of the USA and Israel.”
Görlach summarizes: “It’s really very difficult at the moment to say where this whole story is going.”
