The AfD has been on a roll in elections since mid-2022: in every election they were able to make gains compared to the previous election, on Sunday by a whopping 9.1 percentage points. At the other extreme are the Greens, who have lost in every election since the end of 2022 – including in Baden-Württemberg It fell by 2.4 percentage points on Sunday, but significantly less than previously expected.

In addition, it covered Cem Özdemir’s election victorywhich ended up being just ahead in the second votes, this decline. The trend is “your friend” is an old political saying. The AfD’s winning streak is likely to continue in the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate in just under two weeks – according to current surveys.

AfD did not shape the election campaign

Nevertheless, the Baden-Württemberg election shows that in the final spurt, the Greens and CDU, as center parties, made gains compared to the polls, while the parties on the fringes, i.e. the AfD and the Left, lost. As recently as October, pollsters predicted 21 percent for the AfD. It felt like election Sunday was a victory with a black eye.

This was also because the AfD was unable to shape the election campaign thematically. The topic of migration was omitted. In the end, the race was perceived almost entirely as a duel between the Greens and the CDU. In such a constellation there was less room for Markus Frohnmaier and his party. There were also errors and breakdowns.

Non-voters are moving to the AfD

But the AfD in the southwest cannot yet speak of an exhausted upper limit. The voter migration according to data from Infratest Dimap actually shows gains from all parties, but mostly from non-voters. The AfD won a net 190,000 votes from previous non-voters, 80,000 from the CDU, 65,000 from the FDP, 35,000 each from the SPD and the Greens, as well as additional votes from small parties.

Former non-voters make up 40 percent of the AfD’s positive migration balance and were by far their most important source. As in recent years, it is clear that increasing voter turnout has the greatest impact on the AfD. On Sunday this rose by 5.8 percentage points. We know from election research that voter turnout is associated with income, social integration, a high level of education and old age. The AfD performs poorly among voters with these characteristics. If more voters who have fewer of these characteristics go to the polls, then this will benefit the AfD.

Voter turnout and mobilization: The potential of the AfD

This is precisely where its further potential lies: less in the classic change of camp than in the mobilization of politically distant, suspicious and socially insecure milieus. Scientific studies also show that a high willingness to vote for the AfD is particularly linked to problematic working conditions, a lack of recognition in the profession, fear of the future and strong mistrust of institutions.

In the federal election, almost 40 percent of workers voted for AfD, i.eIn Baden-Württemberg it was 37 percent. In Mannheim I, a long-standing SPD stronghold, with the Waldhof district, which is traditionally dominated by workers, and the Vogelstang district, which is inhabited by many emigrants, the AfD won its only direct mandate. Voter turnout there was only 54.1 percent – ​​around 15 percentage points lower than the national average. This indicates further AfD potential.

AfD voter structure

AfD voters mostly have a low and medium level of formal education, and they are people who assess their economic situation as less good or bad; in this group it even reached 41 percent. This speaks less of a purely “left-behind” milieu than of an alliance of workers, the insecure lower middle class and status-conscious parts of the petty-bourgeois spectrum. The party seems to be particularly compatible where economic uncertainty, fear of decline, cultural alienation and institutional mistrust coincide.

The structural backbone of the party was particularly clear in rural areas: it achieved its best second vote results at constituency level in smaller, conservative areas, often with a Protestant tradition. The AfD performed particularly well in the age groups from 25 to 59 years. The results were significantly worse among older people aged 70 and over (9 percent) and younger people (16 percent). Men (22 percent) are stronger than women voters (16 percent).

AfD: “Swimming belt” of convinced voters

The AfD’s potential does not seem to have been exhausted yet; In East Germany, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is even at 40 percent. Almost half of their voters now vote for the AfD out of conviction. Structurally, this looks like a swimming belt. 10 years ago it was only 30 percent, and protest voters dominated the AfD electorate. But the election also showed that the AfD is far from unstoppable. A focus on the middle has slowed success. And our own scandals, which inevitably arise, create headwinds.

This confirms a theory that is over 100 years old by the political scientist Robert Michels, who spoke of the iron “law of oligarchy” in the establishment of parties. Translated to today: As soon as a party sits in state parliaments, the Bundestag and the European Parliament, mandates, employee positions, access to money, publicity and careers arise. This strengthens those actors who already control mandates or list positions. The transition from the movement party to the parliamentary party shifts power and the parties become more similar. Even with the scandals.