• In the video above: The Hormuz blockade is now threatening a food crisis

The war in the Middle East has long since reached Germany – at least economically. Driver are already feeling the consequences at the gas pump, The fluctuations in the energy markets are clear and concerns about a new wave of inflation are growing.

It shows what further consequences the escalation between Israel, the USA and Iran can have for Germany and Europe Short report from the government’s scientific advisory group, FOCUS online is present.

The core message from economists Veronika Grimm, Justus Haucap, Stefan Kolev and Volker Wieland: The price shock is already here. And if the conflict continues, Even other areas of everyday life are more expensive become.

What consumers are already feeling

• petrol has dealt with +9.5% and Diesel with +16.3% already more expensive
• Gas prices in Europe are with +9.5% increased significantly
• heating oil also reacted noticeably
• Higher Transport and insurance costs put supply chains under pressure
• kerosene lay around +79.8% higher

What could become more expensive next

• Electricity
• Groceries
• Restaurant visits
• Industrial goods and household appliances
• numerous products with a high energy and transport content

The report does not provide any specific price forecasts for individual products. But it is becoming clear: the greatest short-term risks come from the energy markets. This is particularly critical Strait of Hormuz.

Government advisors warn of new price increases for oil and gas

Oil prices have risen by almost 50 percent since the beginning of the war now well over $100 per barrel. Some experts even thought prices of up to $150 were possible.

Also at Government advisors see significant risks in gas. The report indicates a temporary increase almost 60 euros per megawatt hour the speech. That would be a Plus of almost 80 percent compared to the initial level.

Why electricity can also become more expensive in Germany

The situation with electricity is particularly delicate. The report indicates that Gas and electricity prices are often tight in Germany converge. The reason is the so-called merit order effect: often one Gas power plant the price on the electricity market.

So if gas increases, electricity can also follow suit. According to the authors’ assessment, this is particularly true for Germany and Italy. France is less vulnerable because of its high share of nuclear power, as is Spain at times because of its high level of renewable energies.

This means for consumers: Even those who don’t heat with gas can still feel the effects of the war later on their electricity bills.

Food could be next

The next stage of the domino effect is particularly relevant for many households Groceries regards. The report warns that higher energy prices and disrupted supply chains will also occur in the medium term Fertilizer and agricultural production can make it more expensive.

Nitrogen fertilizer is predominantly produced using natural gas. According to the report, gas typically accounts for 60 to 80 percent of the production costs of such fertilizers. At the same time, a significant portion of the global fertilizer trade passes through the Persian Gulf region.

If Gas, transport and intermediate products more expensive will, they will rise Costs in agriculture and food production. This particularly applies to products that use a lot of energy, for example

Is there also a threat of new inflation?

Yes, warn the government advisors – at least if the price shock does not subside quickly. In their base scenario of the report, they come to the conclusion that consumer price inflation could rise significantly by more than one percentage point.

There is also a second risk: the so-called second-round effects. Then not only energy and fuels become more expensive, but also services and other goods. Companies pass on higher costs, employees demand more wages, and inflation eats deeper into the economy. Therefore, core inflation could be around 0.5 percentage points higher in the longer term.

Is there now a new crisis like 2022?

The authors expressly do not go that far. They emphasize that the situation cannot be equated with the energy crisis following the Russian attack on Ukraine. Europe’s gas supply is now more broadly based and the LNG infrastructure has been significantly expanded.

At the same time, the consultants warn against giving the wrong all-clear. This time it is probably less about an acute shortage than about price effects. In other words: Gas does not have to become scarce like it will in 2022 – but it can remain significantly more expensive.

What the report says the government shouldn’t do

It is also worth noting what the experts advise against:

• fuel discounts,
• Price caps and
• They reject an excess profits tax.

Their reason: in a situation of scarcity high prices demand and thus controlled the consumption of scarce resources. Quick political decisions could distort this mechanism.

Instead, the authors recommend Market disruptions to observe closely Gas supply and Memory filling to keep an eye on things and prepare crisis instruments – but without hectic ad hoc interventions.

What that means for consumers

The most important answer to the price question is: Yes, the war has already reached Germany. And yes, it could be even more expensive.

Whether this will result in a longer price surge depends primarily on one question: How long will the conflict last – and to what extent will oil, gas and trade routes be further affected? The longer the escalation continues, the greater the risk that higher energy prices will turn into a new broad wave of inflation.