Forget regime change, nuclear deals and other shifting goals of US policy toward Iran: In the third week of War seems to be Donald Trump’s agenda to have shrunk to a central goal – the Control of the Strait of Hormuzthe most important bottleneck for global energy supply. It will also be decided there whether the Iran war can be escalated – or slowed down. There is a risk of further escalation.

The US and Israel continue to bomb hundreds of targets in Iran, many with no direct connection to the strait. According to the Washington-based human rights organization HRANA, at least 2,400 people have been killed since the war began, including more than 1,300 civilians. Iran, in turn, attacks Israel and Gulf states on a daily basis with missiles and drones.

There is a risk of further escalation: Will other Gulf states intervene?

Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus of the conflict. Iran has effectively imposed a blockade, threatening merchant ships and attacking some. This affects around 15 percent of global oil supplies as well as large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, which supplies around 20 percent of global LNG exports.

The Trump administration reportedly did not expect the strait to close completely — and is now searching for an answer. “One way or another, we will soon REOPEN the Strait of Hormuz – SAFE and FREE,” the president recently wrote. Iran’s new supreme leader Mojaba Khamenei, however, said the passage would remain closed.

Two pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates bypass the Strait of Hormuz and maintain some oil exports. But they are only a limited alternative. Iran is already trying to hit this infrastructure with drone strikes.

It will be difficult for Trump to keep his promise

If Tehran expands its attacks or uses allies like the Houthi militia in Yemen again against shipping in the Red Sea, the conflict could escalate further – and also drag the Gulf states directly into the war.

Both sides are faced with a dilemma: the USA has no easy way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran might also be unable to force Washington to end the war by closing them down.

Trump will likely have difficulty keeping his promise. The geography of the strait, which is only 54 kilometers wide, plays into Iran’s hands. Tehran doesn’t have to attack every ship – the threat alone is enough to deter shipping companies and insurers.

There is also a risk of escalation around the island of Kharg

Attempts to organize international warships to escort merchant ships have so far met with little support.

If Washington cannot open the route, things could escalate elsewhere. A possible starting point is the island of Kharg in the Persian Gulfwhich is home to Iran’s main oil export terminal.

US forces have already bombed military targets there, but left the terminal itself untouched because an attack could trigger a serious environmental disaster.

The US could try to take the island to force Iran to negotiate. But such a step would be risky: the area is within range of Iranian missiles and drones. In addition, a further escalation could further shock the already tense energy markets.

The consequences of the blockade are already being felt. The price of oil has risen to over $100 per barrel. Some Asian governments have introduced energy-saving measures, such as less air conditioning in public offices or more home offices.

Other markets are also reacting: the prices for helium and fertilizers have risen significantly since the start of the war.