Was the threat from Iran really that acute? Donald Trump claimed? There are now considerable doubts about this. While the US President warned of an imminent nuclear danger, his intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard contradicted him.

For political scientist Thomas Jäger it is clear: “The services are more credible,” he says in an interview with FOCUS online. Even before the war began, they had not recognized any acute danger. Jäger gives two central reasons.

“It will take years to develop it”

Firstly, the Iranian nuclear program had already been massively weakened: “In June 2025, the nuclear facilities were hit in such a way that the program was interrupted.” Since then, “nothing has been rebuilt.”

The second point, according to the political scientist, is the “accessibility” of the USA. “To do this, Iran would need intercontinental ballistic missiles. It doesn’t have them,” says Jäger. So Tehran can hardly threaten Washington directly. “It will take years to develop them. It will take years to equip them with nuclear material.”

Why Trump can’t backtrack

Nevertheless, Trump sticks to his portrayal. In Hunter’s eyes, he has to too. This has domestic political reasons. “Trump has to claim this in order to be able to say to his voters: ‘I couldn’t help but avert this danger.'” The pressure comes from several sides:

• Voter: Rising prices for gasoline and the cost of living increase the pressure to justify.
• Midterms: The Republicans risk losing both chambers of Congress this fall.
• Inner Circle: Members of the administration advised against war.

The current developments could have far-reaching consequences for Trump. Jäger speaks of a “defining development”. The US President is caught in a dilemma between further escalation and a withdrawal that is difficult to mediate.

Defining moment for Trump’s presidency

Above all, in Jäger’s opinion, Trump is losing a central political narrative: “He will no longer be able to stand up and say: ‘I am the peace president.'” Instead, he “led a war that he chose. Nobody forced him to do it, no threat forced him to do it.”

This makes the question of the alleged nuclear danger a core political problem – and a risk for Trump’s presidency.