That’s two points more than Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer’s ruling Social Democrats. Both parties were able to gain one point each compared to the previous week.

The Mainz state parliament will be re-elected this Sunday. In the 2021 election, the SPD with 35.7 percent was well ahead of the CDU with 27.7 percent. The Union led the polls by a large margin for a long time, but the lead has since melted away. The election in Rhineland-Palatinate also has national political significance, as only one partner in the black-red Berlin coalition can emerge as the winner.

AfD in third place

The AfD is in third place in the ZDF survey with 19 percent. The Greens follow well behind with 9 percent. Both parties remain unchanged compared to the previous week. The Left with currently 5 percent (unchanged) and the Free Voters with 4.5 percent (minus 0.5 points) have to worry about entering the state parliament. The other parties together come to 6.5 percent (minus 1.5).

For the survey, the Elections Research Group surveyed 1,139 eligible voters in Rhineland-Palatinate by telephone and online on Wednesday and Thursday. According to the information, it is representative.

When asked who one would most like to have as Prime Minister, SPD Prime Minister Schweitzer is clearly ahead of CDU man Schnieder with 40 percent, who has 25 percent. The head of government is not elected directly by the people, but by the state parliament.

Other institutes also see a tight starting position

Surveys from other institutes also recently suggested a close race between the CDU and SPD. In a survey by the opinion research institute Insa for the “Bild” newspaper, the Christian Democrats were one point ahead of the Social Democrats at 28 percent. The situation was similar last week in an ARD survey by Infratest dimap: CDU 29 percent, SPD 28 percent. A traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP currently governs Mainz. The latter is not shown separately in the current ZDF survey – which means that it is less than three percent.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The Elections Research Group states a statistical margin of error of a good plus/minus two percentage points with a share value of ten percent; with a share value of 40 percent it is plus/minus three points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.