Meteorologist Jan Schenk classifies the current developments in the weather talk with FOCUS online.

Development in the Pacific is already underway

After a phase with La Niña conditions, i.e. comparatively cool water in the Pacifictemperatures are now rising significantly. “The surface temperature on the Pacific will increase sharply,” explains Schenk. The first signs are already visible.

The probability of an El Niño is high: “I think it’s set. We’re going to have an El Niño.” However, it remains unclear how strong this will be.

Super El Niño: Rare, but with known consequences

A Super El Niño is the particularly strong variant of the phenomenon. “The probability is less than 20 percent this year,” said Schenk. Nevertheless, it is worth taking a look at the past: the last time such an extreme event occurred was in 1997, and 2015 was also a very strong El Niño year.

Such years are considered exceptional, with sometimes significant impacts on global weather patterns.

First heat, then storm?

A strong El Niño also affects Europe. “A Super El Niño “The temperature will increase even more,” says Schenk. As a result, a stable high pressure situation could develop over parts of Europe: “It is likely that something like a heat bell will form over Europe.”

But as things progress, the weather could change. “This El Niño will last the second half of the year Summer “It’s going to be quite a mess,” says Schenk. The background is a possible destabilization of the jet stream, which can then direct more cold air towards Europe.

More thunderstorms and heavy rain possible

This increases the likelihood of thunderstorms and unsettled weather. “Then we will get a relatively large number of thunderstorms,” explains Schenk. In combination with very warm Mediterranean waters, heavy rainfall could also occur.

A look at previous events shows the risk: In 1997, the Oder flooded as a result of a strong El Niño.

One thing is certain: If a Super El Niño develops in 2026, it could have a significant impact on the summer – with heat phases, but also an increased probability of thunderstorms and heavy rain.