Since the start of the Iran war, Ukraine has been largely pushed out of the headlines. Therefore, a military success by the defense army received little attention: In February, Kiev’s soldiers recaptured more land than they lost elsewhere – for the first time since 2023. But that by no means stopped the Russian invaders.

Russia steps up ground operations in the north of the “fortress belt”

As for Moscow’s goals for 2026, military expert Gustav Gressel predicted the risk of the so-called “fortress belt” being encircled in the east. This refers to four well-defended cities in the previously unconquered part of the Donetsk region. If Russia were to take it, the biggest step towards conquering the industrial region of Donbas would be taken. Then at least one of the war aims would be achieved.

The experts at the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) state in a current report: “The Russian armed forces have probably begun their offensive against the Ukrainian fortress belt, which was announced for spring/summer 2026.”

Accordingly, the Russians have increased their ground operations in the north of the “fortress belt”, towards the city of Sloviansk.

Encirclement from the north

What is noteworthy in this context is an attack on March 19th with a striking composition. 500 foot soldiers were apparently accompanied by dozens of armored vehicles as well as more than 100 motorcycles, buggies and all-terrain vehicles. This advance is “significantly larger” than most other, comparable attacks in recent months.

In general, it was recently noted that the Russian army attacked with relatively few heavy vehicles. Presumably to hold them back for the offensive that was now beginning.

The ISW refers to information from a Ukrainian brigade active in the region. As a result, the Russians attacked in the north of the “fortress belt”, particularly with a large number of soldiers and heavy equipment. The number of glide bombs has also been increased. The ISW states: The air strikes are probably intended to weaken Ukrainian defense capabilities in advance of ground operations.

Encirclement from the south

To encircle the “fortress belt,” Russian advances from the south – towards the town of Kostiantynivka – are also necessary. The ISW is also seeing initial signs of this. The Ukrainian army is observing the relocation of soldiers and heavy equipment and an increasing number of attacks with drones and artillery.

How far will Russia get with the encirclement of the “fortress belt” this year? The ISW considers the capture of the cities to be unlikely and instead assumes “some tactical successes with considerable losses”.

The apparently poor training of the Russian soldiers may also contribute to these losses. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia has shortened the basic training of its ground attack troops – from a month to a week. This was probably done to speed up the deployment of new recruits to the front and thus compensate for the high losses in attacks, writes the ISW.

Ukrainian counterattacks complicate Russian objective

The Russian advance is not only hindered by its own poorly trained men. The Ukrainian army is also doing its part.

According to the ISW, these include attacks on Russian multiple rocket launchers in the north of the “fortress belt”, air attacks approximately one hundred kilometers behind the front line to weaken supplies – and Ukrainian counterattacks on the southern part of the front.

Exactly where Ukraine was last able to retake land. Apparently it was less about territorial gains. The aim is likely to be to distract the Russian army from attacking the “fortress belt”.