After the election is before the election and in less than two weeks one of the two coalition partners in Berlin will say: lost twice. The Monday after State election in Rhineland-Palatinatethat will be the day of reckoning. The moment of truth.

• The CDUbecause she accomplished a feat: with a visibly overwhelmed top candidate in combination with a weak election campaign, turning a planned election success into a defeat.
• The SPDbecause now everyone has understood that the workers’ party from the times of Brandt, Schmidt and Schröder is no longer a workers’ party. But the party of the unemployed. The Workers’ Party is now the AfD and – with some reservations – the CDU.

CDU and SPD: We have nothing to do with the defeat

What led to this was not even discussed by either party this Monday. Both losing parties acted as if they had nothing to do with the unsatisfactory result.

Friedrich Merz As Chancellor and CDU leader, he was a burden for his local party. The surveys were clear: the voters, especially the middle-class ones, have not forgotten, let alone forgiven, Merz for breaking his word on the debt brake and the special infrastructure fund.

The performance of the Merz government is rated as poor, the trust ratings are worse than those of Merz’s predecessor Scholz. And then came the part-time and denture proposals – from the CDU and the CDU Economic Council.

“Crazy idea,” says Gordon Schnieder. The man wants to become Prime Minister of Rhineland-Palatinate, so he thinks it’s smart to keep his distance from the federal CDU. Which was already the secret of the success of the Green Cem Özdemir in Baden-Württemberg.

Lack of strategy and the rise of the AfD

The SPD leadership had little to think of about the unprecedented crash in Baden-Württemberg other than loser phrases. Except that things have to be “fair” in Germany. Tax increases remain in play – the only thing you can rely on from the SPD – alongside the “fight against the right”.

The following applies to him: Although it was supported by the CDU and SPD, it did not win in Baden-Württemberg, and the situation is no different in Rhineland-Palatinate: the AfD in Mainz has a record-breaking 19 percent. And the top candidate Jan Bollinger is not doing the other parties a favor by appearing as radical and unfriendly as Alice Weidel.

Blockade in social policy

They need the SPD for the reforms that Merz, Linnemann and Spahn have announced. But they don’t go along with it – most recently, the citizens’ benefit reform was watered down beyond recognition. The SPD made it clear in the Bundestag that there could be no question of the “abolition” announced by Merz during the election campaign.

The top people from the Union and SPD are currently testing what the reaction will be to a pension reform, under which you have to have worked for 45 years in order to be able to move from your job to your pension without any deductions. There is a lot to be said for this, but: There would be a lot of “victims” – practically all academics.

Would that be the kind of “reform” with which the Union and SPD can get out of the crisis in a “summer of reforms”?

Climate protection and tax debates

A court ruling also ensures that the near future is likely to be rather uncomfortable for the two coalition parties: that of the Leipzig Administrative Court on climate protection. By the end of March, Berlin must explain how it can achieve clear emissions reductions in road traffic. German Environmental Aid, which obtained the verdict, relies on speed limits – 100 on motorways, 30 in cities. There is a suspicious silence on this topic in both coalition parties.

You only hear cryptic things from the formerly large parties on the subject of tax and contribution increases. The SPD’s imagination has always been limitless here, and we haven’t heard from the Union for a long time: it won’t exist with us. The CDU already had an increase in the top tax rate on its agenda.

Choice of fate in Mainz

From Berlin’s perspective, there will definitely be a loser in the election in Rhineland-Palatinate: the SPD will lose for the second time in a row if incumbent Schweitzer does not remain prime minister. The CDU will lose for the second time in a row if challenger Schnieder does not become prime minister. Merz’s troops priced in his victory just as they priced in a victory for Hagel in Baden-Württemberg.

Nobody in Mainz believes in the revival of the traffic light coalition anymore. The Greens in Rhineland-Palatinate are Green-Orthodox, roughly the opposite of Cem Özdemir. And the FDP is currently running towards the next exit with a more socially liberal course. The Liberals are now against the early climate neutrality 2040 – because of the industrial jobs – but they went along with it as a government party – despite the industrial jobs. Top candidate Schmitt also thinks it is important “that the next Federal President is a woman.”

A dead heat in the state – but not in the federal government

Rhineland-Palatinate is moving towards a grand coalition. The SPD and CDU men are so similar programmatically that you have to look for differences with a magnifying glass. Incumbent Schweitzer comments to himself; As soon as the Union makes a comprehensible demand, the SPD man adopts it. At the moment it’s a dead heat.

In the state – but not in the federal government. The election in Rhineland-Palatinate will have serious consequences – for the coalition in Berlin. After Mainz, the moment of truth comes in Berlin.