In view of the deep crisis facing the Social Democrats and initial calls for resignation, this may seem like stubbornly sticking to the boss’s chair. However, the decision appears to make sense from two perspectives, at least from the SPD’s perspective.

Klingbeil refers to the overall political climate during the chairmanship debate

When asked about possible personnel consequences, Klingbeil said on Sunday evening on ARD: “It’s also about responsibility in a phase in which we have two wars, in which we have an economic downturn, in which we want to launch a huge reform package in the federal government.”

There may be power-tactical reasons why Klingbeil referred to the general political situation. His hope could be that the comrades remember the SPD’s political responsibility and do not want to bring the party into even greater turbulence with a change in personnel.

As Merz’s partner, Klingbeil is important for reforms

Klingbeil, as Vice Chancellor, spoke about this again and again with Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU). It can be assumed that they have already developed ideas about where possible compromise lines between the SPD and the Union could run.

Would the Social Democrats now change their chairmen and also someone else – such as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius – Vice-Chancellor, these lines would probably have to be re-explored. What’s more, it would take time for the new SPD top staff to build up the kind of trust that Klingbeil reportedly has with Merz.

Based on this reform logic, a change in personnel could be bad for Germany – and possibly also for the SPD. If the Social Democrats stand up for the reforms aggressively and not just in a hush-hush manner, and if they have the desired effect, this could give rise to momentum. At least in theory.

Does SPD General Klüssendorf react like a football manager?

Secondly, there is an internal party logic that makes a change of chairmen seem unfavorable at this point in time. The SPD seems to have reached a low point at the moment – but there is a risk of an even deeper fall in the autumn.

When Tim Klüssendorf was asked on Monday on broadcaster Phoenix how a manager of a football club would react to a series of defeats, the SPD general secretary replied: “You would change the coach, but that’s not what we’re planning on doing now.” Klüssendorf calls himself a “football fan through and through” and he even sat on the supervisory board for his favorite club VfB Lübeck for a time. So he will probably know that there are good and bad times for coaching changes.

As a rule, relegation candidates do the devil to fire their coach before a game against the all-dominating FC Bayern is scheduled. It is very likely that the new coach would start with a defeat, or even a slap. The hoped-for awakening effect would quickly be gone.

New chairmen would face immediate defeat

The situation is similar for the SPD at the moment: If they were to replace their chairmen now, there would be a risk that the new leaders would be held responsible for further defeats in the autumn. In September there are three state elections in which the chances of victory are slim:

• In Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD has had single-digit poll numbers for years. The election campaign is likely to escalate to a duel between the CDU and the AfD. The Social Democrats could then be crushed in the middle, similar to Baden-Württemberg, and would have to worry about even getting back into the state parliament.
• In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig wants to defend the premiership for the SPD. The AfD is currently far ahead of the Social Democrats in the polls. It is expected that the SPD will suffer dramatic losses compared to the dream result of 39.6 percent in the 2021 election.
• The race is still most open in Berlin. The CDU, the Greens, the Left and the SPD are hoping for an election victory. Incumbent Kai Wegner and his Christian Democrats are currently ahead in the polls.

If Bas and Klingbeil can hold their own over the next few months, the personnel debate will most likely break out again in September. Potential successors could then come to the conclusion that a favorable situation is opening up for a boss swap.

In 2027 the world will look a little better for the Social Democrats

There will be several state elections again in 2027. Until then, the party would have time to realign itself. And the conditions are somewhat better in the respective countries:

• The SPD currently governs Saarland with an absolute majority, and the popular Prime Minister Anke Rehlinger and her party are also ahead of the CDU in the most recent polls.
• The SPD also governs in Bremen. Even though the Senate is repeatedly criticized, the SPD is only slightly behind the CDU in the polls.
• In Schleswig-Holstein, however, according to surveys, the opposition SPD has little chance of catching up with the more than 20 percentage points gap to the CDU.
• In North Rhine-Westphalia, the SPD is also far behind the CDU. But there is at least no threat of a total collapse in the “heart chamber of social democracy”.
• In Lower Saxony, the SPD and CDU are currently almost on a par in the surveys. Prime Minister Olaf Lies still has around a year and a half to earn a bonus as incumbent.

It is possible that Bas and Klingbeil will be doing their last but very important service to the SPD in the coming months: initiating reforms for Germany, initiating a renewal of the SPD, accepting the threat of state election defeats in the fall – and only then leaving the executive chair.