Since then, some coalition politicians have been asking themselves: What does the situation mean for the planned law? There are members of the SPD in the Bundestag who quickly recognized that the current situation poses a risk for the heating transition that can be turned into a political opportunity, as FOCUS online learned.

Fossil gas remains important thanks to the heating law reform

The risk can be summarized as follows: The Building Modernization Act (GMG) enables property owners to continue to rely on gas heating. In the future, they should be supplied with more and more biogas, but this is only available in small quantities. For the time being, mainly fossil gas will still flow through the network.

Due to the lack of its own reserves, Germany can only cover this gas demand through imports. But this also means that you are dependent on what is happening elsewhere in the world – Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the resulting gas crisis have clearly shown this.

The war in the Gulf region is now reminding us of this again. Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) has assured that this will not cause a gas shortage in Germany. In a world, in which international law counts less and less and armed conflicts increase, the risk increases that at some point a conflict will endanger the supply of fossil gas.

“Anyone who installs gas heating will be at the mercy of energy markets”

Jan Rosenow, energy expert at the University of Oxford, explains when asked by FOCUS online: “The planned building modernization law in its current form cements the dependence on fossil fuels for decades. Anyone who installs a gas heater today will be at the mercy of its operating costs and the turbulence on the global energy markets – not for years, but for the entire lifespan of the system.”

Rosenow sees only one way out: “Ultimately, we need a law that phases out gas heating and promotes alternative technologies such as heat pumps and district heating.” The finding is not new. The so-called heating law by former Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) relied on the electrically operated heat pump.

With the Iran war, SPD politicians have an argument for negotiations

Many Social Democrats also see what energy expert Rosenow says. They had to grudgingly accept that the Union first wrote the abolition of the heating law into the coalition agreement and then pushed through the key points in the negotiations.

With the Iran war, the SPD politicians suddenly have an argument with which they can make their coalition partner think again. The tenor: Look, the planned law is not particularly clever from a geostrategic perspective. This is an opportunity for the SPD for the upcoming negotiations on how exactly the key points will be developed.

Even the worst critics of the planned law emphasize that they do not want to completely unravel the key points again. In a coalition you sometimes have to accept if your government partner gets their way. It is a great good that everyone can rely on compromises that have been reached at once and that no attempt is made to torpedo them from behind.

The SPD now wants to negotiate hard in two areas

But at the same time there is clearly a willingness among the Social Democrats to sharpen things up where the key points still leave room for maneuver. Two places can be identified for this:

1. It has not yet been finally clarified what will happen with the funding for heat pumps. The SPD could try to design it in such a way that basically every application is approved and it is then more attractive for most property owners to install a heat pump than a gas heater.
2. It is also still unclear in which steps the mandatory biogas share for heating will increase. From 2029 it should be ten percent, after which it should be increased in three stages until 2040. If the SPD succeeds in implementing this in its spirit, this could also have a strong influence on the effect of the Building Modernization Act.

The Social Democrats want to negotiate hard on these points. However, there could be a problem: Some suspect that the two parliamentary group leaders Jens Spahn (CDU) and Matthias Miersch (SPD) have made secret side agreements in addition to the key points, which restrict the negotiating scope for the specialist politicians.

CDU emphasizes that gas is important for the transition

The CDU doesn’t want to get involved in mind games about the Iran war. Andreas Lenz, spokesman for economics and energy in the Bundestag parliamentary group, confirmed the advantages of the heat pump when asked by FOCUS online. It is “often the method of choice in new buildings and beyond.” If it is beneficial, it will be installed. “Electrification is a trend that we support,” said Lenz.

However, the CDU politician emphasizes: “Nevertheless, many existing systems rely on gas. Many companies also need gas to provide process heat.” Some would suggest that these needs could be replaced with a “snap”. “That is not the case,” clarifies Lenz.

SPD wants to put pressure on the Union with the tenant argument

In addition to the geostrategic argument, SPD politicians have identified another lever with which they want to build pressure on the Union. The planned building modernization law could also happen without a gas crisis expensive for tenants become.

The Social Democrats are betting that the CDU/CSU will also rethink this. If people in the constituency criticized the law often enough, the politicians from the CDU and CSU would begin to wonder whether the reform was a good idea.

Given such considerations, the discussions in the next few weeks are likely to become complicated. The law is actually supposed to be passed in the cabinet before Easter. It should then quickly pass through the Bundestag and come into force in July. At least there is agreement in the coalition on this point: This is an ambitious schedule.