The aim of the negotiations could be to install a new head of state in Iran. Two White House employees told the US news portal “Politico”they are looking for someone based on the model of Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodríguez. The aim is therefore to install a person “to whom we say: ‘We will keep you in power, in return you work with us and guarantee us a good deal.'” According to the officials, there is already a specific favorite for this role in Iran: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Ghalibaf was involved in suppressing student protests

Ghalibaf has been speaker of the Iranian parliament since 2020. Since the 1979 revolution, he has steadily worked his way up through the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard: in the Iran-Iraq War of 1980, he led a division in his early 20s, later he became national police chief, mayor of Tehran and unsuccessfully ran for president several times.

“Ghalibaf is a complete regime insider: ambitious and pragmatic, but absolutely committed to preserving the Islamic order,” is how Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, described him to Politico. Ghalibaf hardly stands for a renewal or even a democratic opening of Iran: According to reports from “Mirror“As national police chief, it was also instrumental in suppressing student protests on two occasions.

Ghalibaf is opportune for the USA – hardly an improvement for the Iranians

The US-Israeli attack and the killing of much of Iran’s leadership could now become a great opportunity for Ghalibaf. According to the American newspaper “The Hill”, he is now responsible for the country’s major military and strategic decisions.

“It could signal a certain transition: away from Islamic theocracy towards a nationalist-militaristic autocracy,” says Cornelius Adebahr, Iran analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, to “Spiegel”. Trump could thereby tick off his regime change war goal – even if Ghalibaf is unlikely to change much for the Iranian people.

“We test candidates – if they are radical, we eliminate them”

But even with Ghalibaf as negotiator, an agreement in Iran is likely to be much more difficult than in Venezuela: too many actors determine the country’s politics, such as the Revolutionary Guard. It takes much more than a willing leader to make concessions to the United States.

That’s why officials in Washington don’t want to rely solely on Ghalibaf. They told Politico: “We’re in the process of finding out who can make it to the top. And if someone makes it, then we’ll do a quick test. If they’re too radical, we’ll eliminate them.”