Geopolitics expert Klemens Fischer in an interview with FOCUS online classifies how seriously Birol’s statements should be taken. In the future, the global community will face several serious crises.

• Scarcity of energy sources
• Fertilizer shortage and food crisis
• Shortage of fuel

“We’re talking about fertilizers, sulfur and other raw materials”

“Fatih Birol is not known for being the great apocalypticist, i.e. the one who predicts the end of the world. He was also one of those who held back from publicly commenting for three weeks. That means he observed the situation from an energy policy perspective for a very, very long time before commenting.” What he then said, says Fischer, was dramatic. “The millions of barrels of oil per day that come onto the market can still be partially compensated for. But we are also talking about fertilizers here. We are talking about sulfur and other raw materials that are brought from the Strait of Hormuz and come to the world market.”

“What he alleges is that the Europeans have not learned from it”

According to Fischer, his criticism of Europe and Germany in particular is based on the following: “First, Europe was dependent on Russia for gas and oil. Then you can become dependent on it by sourcing LNG either from the USA or from the Arabian Gulf area. And that is exactly what he is actually saying, that the Europeans have not learned from it and have not diversified their energy supply.” Europe would not be able to compensate for the cuts if suppliers from the Middle East were lost.

Fischer continued that one could also criticize the fact that too little focus was placed on renewable energies. Fischer’s conclusion: “This is an energy crisis that will of course have an incredible aftereffect.”

In addition to the primary war damage such as bomb strikes, destruction of infrastructure, deaths and serious injuries, the secondary, long-term war damage is “unforeseeable”. “Because you can’t come there with a broom, sweep up, spill everything into the Gulf and say we’re starting over.”

“Increased gasoline prices will not go down again”

On the contrary, we will face several problems in the future. Fischer shares Birol’s dramatic view. He names three main complications: “We will be faced with the problem that we will have to reorganize the energy sources. We will also be faced with the problem that the fertilizers that are now failing can hardly compensate. This means that a certain food crisis can also arise. And above all what we are now seeing at the petrol pumps, the increased price of petrol or diesel – that will not go back to the pre-war status.” According to Fischer, this may lead to a regression.

This is exactly what Birol warned about. “He can prove it with numbers. (…) These simulations obviously have ranges, but one thing is definitely certain: it will be very, very difficult for households, namely public and private households, to regain the consumption capacity that was there before the war.”