Before the state elections on Sunday Baden-Württemberg A survey suggests a neck-and-neck race for election victory. In the ZDF “Politbarometer Extra” the CDU and the Greens are both tied at 28 percent. This means that the Greens have their top candidate Cem Ozdemir once again gained favor with voters and closed the gap to the CDU, which had been leading for a long time.

In the last “Political Barometer” survey by the Elections Research Group last Friday, the Greens were still at 25 percent. The CDU from top candidate Manuel Hagel According to the survey, it has also increased by one percentage point compared to the previous week. For months, the CDU had been clearly ahead of the Greens, who currently have Winfried Kretschmann as head of government. Kretschmann will not run again.

Things could get tight for the FDP and the Left

According to pollsters, major changes are still possible. 32 percent of those surveyed were not yet sure whether and who they wanted to vote for.

For the representative ZDF political barometer survey, the Mannheim Elections Research Group surveyed 1,069 eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg between March 4th and 5th. The margin of error is between two and three percentage points.

According to the survey, the smaller parties have to accept losses. The SPD currently has 8 percent and has lost another percentage point compared to the last ZDF “Politbarometer”. It could be difficult for the FDP and the Left to enter the state parliament. The survey sees both parties at 5.5 percent, just above the five percent hurdle. The AfD would come in third place with 18 percent.

47 percent want Özdemir as prime minister

The Greens and CDU have governed together in the southwest since 2016. When asked who voters would most like to have as their new prime minister, the survey sees little change. Özdemir is still ahead with 47 percent. Hagel got 24 percent, Markus Frohnmaier from the AfD got 8 percent.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. Surveys generally only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.