The background is the so far fruitless negotiations about the Iranian nuclear program. Also the harsh approach of the Mullah regime against the civilian population with thousands of deaths is now pushing US President Donald Trump to act. “An attack at the weekend is quite likely,” explains Swiss military expert Albert Stahel to FOCUS online.

Like US security analyst Bob McNally, he doesn’t want to be more specific. McNally has a 75 percent chance of a US attack in the next few days.

Albert Stahel believes that the current large contingent of warships and aircraft off the Iranian coast is just a threat from US President Donald Trump.

Expert: 3 goals of Trump in Iran

The Swiss expert only expects a controlled air strike with five to ten stealth bombers on Iran on Saturday or the days after. “Perhaps cruise missiles from submarines will be used. This attack could last two to three days. A week at most.” According to Stahel, the US could pursue several goals with the possible airstrike this weekend:

• Bombing of the remaining uranium facilities
• Elimination of the Iranian leadership and the killing of leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
• Elimination of the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran and weakening of the Guards

“Trump will forego ground troops”

For him it is clear: “Trump wants the decapitation of the mullahs’ regime. He wants to kill Khamenei.” Another military expert, Klemens Fischer, contradicts: “The USA would need ground troops to kill Khamenei. They leave this operation to the Israelis. A coordinated attack by the US will be limited to the uranium facilities.”

According to Albert Stahel, the US President will forego ground troops in Iran. “Iran is a huge country, very mountainous. Trump would need 300,000 to 500,000 soldiers for such an operation.” If Trump were to go for a broad invasion, he would even risk his own downfall, says Stahel. The supporters of his “MAGA” movement reject extensive military operations by the USA. Trump, in turn, had promised his supporters that he would not lead to any major wars with US involvement abroad.

If there is no attack by the Americans, Stahel believes negotiations will continue. “Iran wants the sanctions to end and will therefore also give up its nuclear program. The Iranians will not agree to the discontinuation of their missile program demanded by Israel“means Albert Stahel.

In recent weeks, the USA has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, including with the aircraft carrier “USS Abraham Lincoln”. Meanwhile, a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, was deployed to the region. According to military expert Fischer, it will take about two weeks to reach the Iranian coast.

More US fighter jets on the way to Iran

According to information from the US newspaper “Wall Street Journal”, other warships, air defense systems and fighter squadrons are already in the Gulf region. According to Axios, the US military transported weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East in more than 150 flights. In addition, another 50 combat aircraft have set off there in the past 24 hours alone.

Attack on Iran could result in terrorist attacks

According to opinion, it will be a controlled airstrike The military expert gave an answer from Iran: “It is mainly Shiites who live in the country: martyrdom is strong among them. They will plan attacks on American bases in Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia.”

The BBC analyzes seven future scenarios for Iran. It is therefore most likely that the mullahs’ regime will be replaced by military rule, as the old power apparatus is still intact. It is also possible that after the fall of Khamenei, Iran will fall into a power vacuum like Libya did after the fall of Muammar al-Gaddafi. It is also conceivable that Trump pursues a similar goal with Iran as he did with Venezuela and continues to work with the old regime after the fall of the leader.