After a drone attack on a refinery owned by the Saudi energy company Saudi Aramco in Ras Tanura, concerns are growing about a massive disruption to global oil supplies. Satellite images show smoke above the plant, parts of the operation have been temporarily shut down; At the same time, tankers avoid them for fear of more Attacks the Strait of Hormuzthrough which around a fifth of global oil trade normally passes. The markets reacted accordingly nervously: The price of oil jumped significantly within a few days. Fuel is already more expensive than it has been in almost two years.

Top economists warn of worst-case scenario

IW foreign trade expert Samina Sultan warns that any shortage of supply will have a direct impact on prices. From their point of view, a blockade of the strait would be the “worst case” for supplies and costs, Sultan said, according to “Bild”. It’s even more drastic Trading expert Gerrit Heinemann (Niederrhein University): If the situation escalates and the route remains closed for a longer period, he believes oil prices of 120 dollars per barrel are possible – with gasoline prices of well over 2 euros per liter in Germany. Such a price surge would not only affect drivers, but would also make heating oil more expensive and further fuel inflation through higher production and transport costs.

The Economics Veronika Grimm In view of the escalation in the Iran war, warns of a possible “energy shock” that would hit Germany in an already fragile economic situation. Particularly energy-intensive ones Industries such as chemistrysteel, glass or paper are under pressure, while Europe as a whole has to reckon with rising energy costs, higher inflation risks and growing investment uncertainty, Grimm told the RND.

Criticism from the gas station association: Corporations enrich themselves

After the escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran, gas station operators nationwide are reporting long queues because many drivers fill up quickly out of concern that prices will continue to rise. Herbert Rabl, Spokesman for the petrol station interest grouptells the news agency that there is a noticeable rush and, like the ADAC, expects further price jumps for petrol and diesel. “Everyone is worried,” said Rabl, whose association says it represents around 1,000 gas station leaseholders in Germany.

It is also to be expected that large corporations will “take another sip from the bottle,” fears Rabl. They would add “two to three percent” to the prices that they themselves had to pay more because of the war.

ADAC: No improvement expected in the short term

According to ADAC, the average price for Super E10 climbed from 1.78 euros to 1.83 euros per liter within a few days, and diesel rose from 1.75 to 1.80 euros. The background is the sharp increase in crude oil prices – Brent was temporarily quoted at over $82 per barrel. Drivers in large cities such as Berlin and Cologne have already reported prices of 1.90 euros and more.

“If the oil price doesn’t fall again soon, the upward trend can continue over the next few days“, predicted ADAC fuel market expert Christian Laberer. Although there is hope for relief in the medium term if the situation in the Gulf calms down and OPEC+ implements its announced production expansions, no quick improvement can be expected in the short term.

“Rocket and feather effect” at the gas station

Experience has shown that rising crude oil prices reach the pumps quickly, while price reductions are often passed on with a delay – a phenomenon that experts refer to as the “rocket and feather effect”. The differences between individual stations could be particularly large in volatile phases, says Laberer. He also points out that diesel has recently been comparatively expensive in relation to the price of oil, which may have dampened the current price increase somewhat.

ADAC spokeswoman Katharina Lucà currently believes that concrete predictions about further developments at the petrol pumps are hardly possible. The geopolitical situation ensures that price levels remain high and makes reliable forecasts difficult.

However, she sees a seasonal opportunity for relief for diesel drivers: if demand for heating oil falls in the summer, this could have a dampening effect on the price of diesel. As a result, the price gap between petrol and diesel is likely to widen again in the coming months.

SPD: Gas station prices are a “rip-off!”

According to Handelsblatt, criticism of the rapid price rise comes from the SPD. Esra Limbacher, spokesman for the Seeheimercriticizes: “What we experience at many gas pumps in our country, is simply a rip off!” He argues that many of the quantities of fuel currently sold were purchased at significantly lower crude oil prices. It is unacceptable to use geopolitical uncertainties as a pretext for excessive margins. In his view, anyone who directly passes on rising world market prices must do so even when prices fall.

Fuels and Energy Trade Association: “Supply is secured”

The industry association rejects the accusation of excessive margins and points to intense competition between providers. How prices develop depends primarily on the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

However, there is no doubt about the basic supply situation: “Germany’s supply is secure.” Because Germany sources crude oil from a large number of producing countries on several continents and is therefore broadly diversified.

Heating oil market: demand for crude oil is increasing

So far, heating oil prices have reacted much more violently. Within a few days, the price per 100 liters temporarily jumped to 120 euros, after previously being well below the 100 euro mark.

Parallel to the price jump, the comparison portal Heizoel24 registered a noticeable increase in demand. The background is the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz – a central artery of the global oil trade.