The evening at Maybrit Illner crystallizes the madness of the Iran War. Above all, the discussion shows how casually US President Donald Trump went into battle. Without informing his allies in NATO and without anticipating the consequences of his military strikes. Apparently Trump thought he could take advantage of the moment together with Israel Unjust regime of the mullahs bomb away and create a new order in the region. Little of Trump’s plans actually seem to be working.

“What Donald Trump expected was not realistic,” explains Peter R. Neumann. The security expert from King’s College London is irritated by Trump’s idea that he wants to use force to “unblock” the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked by Iran for tankers, and has therefore asked NATO for help in the meantime. Neumann unequivocally: “Being an ally doesn’t mean that you have to go along with every nonsense.”

“Totally risky and ineffective”

Security expert Neumann also calculates how nonsensical Trump’s idea of ​​the safe passage of tankers using friendly military from Japan, Germany or France is: If ten warships escorted 40 or 50 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz per day, this would still correspond to a reduction of the original transport of 85 percent.

Himself Maybrit Illner seems surprised by these numbers for the moment and asks: “Trump’s demand is nonsensical because it’s simply not possible militarily?” Answers Neumann: “It would be totally risky and it would be ineffective because only fewer tankers could get through.” But the expert from London has a much bigger problem with Trump’s strange strategies. “Trump’s means don’t match the goals.” If he had wanted to overthrow the mullahs’ regime, he would have had to do something when the people were on the streets. “There’s no one on the streets now. It’s too late.”

“War against the international order”

Similar to expert Neumann, Adis Ahmetović assesses Trump’s war as violating international law. According to the foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, Donald Trump should have consulted his allies. In an alliance like NATO, people should have talked to each other before the war started. The war is simply “wrong”. There was also no immediate threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

The Iran war is “not our war, but we are feeling the consequences.” Nine other countries are already involved in the war and the global economy is coming to a standstill. “It would suit Trump well if he took into account the respect and upholding of international law. The war is not just a war against Iran, it is a war against the international order. We must not argue with double standards or apply double standards.”

Not briefed or not heard?

“Wasn’t Donald Trump warned about the consequences of his war?” Maybrit Illner asks the invited guests. “Either he wasn’t briefed or he didn’t hear it,” says Peter R. Neumann from King’s College London. For many years there have always been two arguments as to why a war against Iran is not promising.

Firstly, because the nuclear facilities are hidden so deep in the ground that they cannot be destroyed with bombs. And secondly, they were always aware of the risk that in the event of war the raw materials trade would be disrupted due to an Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. And as far as the Iranians building a nuclear bomb, it was “never close to twelve.” This means that there can be no question of an acute interest in protection on the part of the Americans.

Shaking world order

The damage that the prevented Nobel Peace Prize winner Donald Trump is causing to global politics is gigantic and continues to grow. The US President has now managed to increasingly weaken the core of NATO. “What made NATO strong, this credible promise that America will defend Europe, can no longer be taken for granted with Trump,” says expert Neumann.

Donald Trump apparently prefers to make lonely decisions and is directing the world’s attention from Ukraine to Iran. While Trump’s predecessors had always renewed the promise to defend Europe if the worst came to the worst, Trump apparently doesn’t value this alliance much. Neumann’s big concern: “Vladimir Putin might be encouraged to try out whether this promise still exists.” In just 14 months, Donald Trump’s second term in office has unsettled the world order. It takes a lot of imagination to imagine what’s to come.