How the Iranian leadership currently functions is unclear, explains Geopolitics expert Klemens Fischer in an interview with FOCUS online. He sees this as a risk: “One thing is very clear: With Modshtaba Khamenei we have a successor as supreme religious leader who had to watch as his entire family, from his father to his mother, wife and children, was eliminated. That means this man has a definite personal grudge against the attackers.”

On Friday afternoon, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a press briefing that Khamenei was presumably “disfigured”. It is unclear whether Khamenei sustained injuries in the rocket attack in which his father died. The interview with Klemens Fischer was recorded before Hegseth’s statements.

Fischer on Iran leadership: “Clique that decides collectively”

There is currently little certainty about the supreme leader’s health. Fischer emphasizes that Khamenei must hold the council together. The geopolitics expert points out: “But anyone who would conclude that it is easier for Israel and the USA regime to fight because this leader is obviously not very capable of taking action personally, is interpreting the system incorrectly. Khamenei’s father, Ali Khamenei, was already the highest religious leader, but it is a whole clique that ultimately decides collectively.”

Fischer emphasizes that this is the danger of the system. And that the system can continue to operate even in the event of failures.

Uncertainty limits the ability to act

Fischer has two guesses as to why a spokeswoman had to read out Khamenei’s announcement on state television. “This shows that you either don’t want him to be seen and that can have two reasons. One is, for example, that he is in the hospital or in whatever care situation. Or that you definitely don’t want to reveal where he is.”

In this context, Fischer also mentions the Israeli foreign secret service Mossad. It is one of the authority’s fundamental skills to be able to “read something from everything and therefore also be able to determine where people are staying.”

The central question that currently concerns the military staffs of Israel and the USA is: “Is this man still alive? Is he capable of acting independently or is he not?” Due to this uncertainty, Iran is still in a position to set the pace in this war.