In the end it was fifth place for Germany 2026 Olympics in the medal table documented. There were 26 precious metals, eight of which shone gold. Nevertheless, there was one less medal than at the previous Winter Games. And Primus Norway (18 gold medals, 41 in total) was missing a small winter sports galaxy anyway.

So what is the state of top German sport? Somewhat modest, says Prof. Dr. Arne Güllich. And provides facts.

“We won half as many medals as we should have won”

On the podcast “You can’t say that” the sports scientist at the Technical University of Kaiserslautern uses a study of the last two summer games, Tokyo 2021 and Paris 2024.

Together with a colleague, he analyzed all western industrial nations that won at least one medal. Expected values ​​could be determined using a model; the question was: How many medals would a country theoretically have to win based on its population size and economic power?

Now it’s getting bitter. Güllich explains:

“Germany is the worst nation in this respect. In other words, it is the furthest below its own expectations. We won half as many medals at the last two Summer Olympics as we should have won. That can be interpreted as meaning that we are making the least of our potential.”

All of the other 21 Western industrial nations with at least one medal are “better than Germany in developing their talents into world-class athletes,” says Güllich. The list is long: the four Scandinavians, Belgium, Ireland, New Zealand, Great Britain, Australia, Japan…

“Today we know the result: none of it worked.”

After the 2026 Olympics, the independent Athletes Association joined Germany once again the idea of ​​reform; The “Sports Promotion Act and the planned top sports agency” are the first steps, it said in a statement.

Güllich counters. “Actually, German top sport is constantly undergoing some sort of reform,” he says. “But I have never seen a well-founded analysis of the causes, neither from sport nor from politics. That should actually precede a reform.” Especially since it’s not just about the money:

“In the past 30 years, we have halved the number of medals we win – while at the same time doubling our funding. At the same time, there were a third more medal opportunities because the number of competitions was increased by a third. And Russia has recently disappeared as a competitor.”

Güllich refers to the 90s, in which “crucial decisions” were made, as he puts it. In 1997 there was a national youth performance concept for the first time – under the assumption that Germany lacked success because the young people “trained too little”.

Plans were then drawn up that expanded youth training by an average of 50 percent. The doctrine: more concentration on fewer centers and establish elite sports schools. “Today we know the result: None of it worked,” emphasizes Güllich.

How the (former) sports nation Germany missed a lot

Structures in Germany are still lacking. “You narrow down the potential talent pool very early on because you believe the myth that young people up to the age of twelve have to be among the best nationally so that they can later become top international players,” complains the sports scientist:

“Other nations are much better than us in that even those who are not among the best in their class at an early age – which makes up the majority of later world-class athletes – have good development opportunities. Be it in the high school system in the USA or in club systems in other countries.”

Germany also has “a great club system. But if it is constantly communicated that from the age of twelve you simply no longer have what it takes to play competitive sports professionally, that is of course not very motivating to happily cultivate youth competitive sports.”

In addition, clubs “do not receive the appropriate funding,” as Güllich criticizes. “The promotion of competitive sports goes to associations and bases, and only in very rare exceptional cases to clubs – but that is where the main development of young people and future top athletes takes place.”

In this respect, the (former) sports nation Germany is overlooking a lot: “We could create the conditions for so many more children to develop their talents. We can only do this with half as many as we actually need to. There are far fewer than our neighboring nations, which are no better off than us. They don’t have better sports facilities or better coaches.”

“Children love the competition and not the result”

What they have: different concepts and ideals. In Norway, for example, children up to the age of 13 are allowed to try out various sports without any pressure to perform. In Germany we are debating participant certificates instead of winner certificates at federal youth games. Prof. Dr. Arne Güllich says:

“Children love the situation of the competition and not the result. They are only interested in what happens between the starting signal and the finish line. Yes, they like praise too. But that’s not what matters to them.”

The reason why people compete at all is simple: “Even for the best athletes, it gets boring at some point if they keep winning. Then the action loses its incentive. This applies to world class, but also to district class – there they don’t do it because of fame, reputation and success. But because we all love the excitement of competition.”