FOCUS online: Mr. Ainetter, the Greens won by a tiny margin over the CDU in the state elections in Baden-Württemberg. As a communications expert, how do you assess the outcome?

Wolfgang Ainetter: This is once again an election campaign that was decided on social media. There is an old videoin which CDU candidate Manuel Hagel talks about a student with “fawn eyes,” went viral. The reaction to this showed that the CDU is still not fit for social media. As a young, fresh guy, Hagel would actually have been ideal for a good digital election campaign.

According to reports, the CDU team was even aware of the video before the Greens distributed it. How should the CDU have reacted?

Ainetter: If you know that such material exists, you have to be sensationally well prepared for publication. You have to have a ready-made counterattack strategy in your drawer. There was actually only one good way: Hagel would have had to stand up and make it clear: “I apologize. What I said was a lot of crap, there’s nothing to sugarcoat. I promise, that’s not me.” Instead, Hagel referred to his wife, who washed his head. The CDU allowed itself to be shot like a grouse in the election campaign.

Why is the CDU so poorly positioned in the social media election campaign?

Ainetter: A look at the extreme parties helps: The FPÖ in Austria and the AfD in Germany despise journalism and have therefore concentrated fully on social media. This is of course worrying from a democratic point of view, but these are the new times. Some parties have recognized this and are now doing something to counteract it – the CDU does not. There are a few Union politicians like Philipp Amthor who have become a brand on social media, but the party is poorly positioned across the board.

The CDU accuses the Greens of starting a smear campaign with the hail video. Do you share this assessment?

Ainetter: According to my definition, it is a smear campaign if you make up accusations and deliberately spread untruths about your opponent. The Greens didn’t do that.

But is that “negative campaigning”?

Ainetter: Absolutely. Social media has made the election campaign tougher, as we already saw in 2021 with the CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet and his laughter in the Ahr Valley. If you make a mistake, you will be digitally executed immediately. This development worries me personally. When politicians are treated so mercilessly, fewer and fewer good people are willing to go into politics.

Unlike hail could Green Party candidate Cem Özdemir scored points with his election campaign and started a race to catch up. What does he have that others don’t have?

Ainetter: Özdemir is totally authentic, he has rough edges. One assumes that he is a Swabian in body and soul. For example, I have the impression that he is really a fan of VfB Stuttgart and is not, like other politicians, just cheering for a club because it might be well received. And Özdemir has a rare gift that only occurs in one in a hundred politicians: he has a charisma gene, a glamor gene. You can’t learn that, you have it or you don’t.

Ainetter: Özdemir had the better election posters, the better commercials and was better on social media. With Özdemir’s agency and social media team, Hagel would probably have become prime minister.

According to the election analyses, a success factor was that Özdemir distanced himself from his own party. Will parties that focus primarily on the candidate rather than themselves win more often in the future?

Ainetter: That’s what I’m assuming. The Austrian ex-chancellor Sebastian Kurz took this to the extreme and once ran with a “List Kurz”, which was nothing other than his party, the ÖVP. This means he won the election. The Austrians were fed up with the outdated party system. An election campaign in which the candidates hide their party will also be the future in Germany.

Let’s look at what happens after the election: In view of the close election result, the CDU is demanding that Özdemir and Hagel share the office of Prime Minister. Is this a wise request before negotiations?

Ainetter: I can personally understand that the CDU is disappointed. But a part-time prime minister cannot be the solution to closing old wounds.

Why does the CDU demand this then?

Ainetter: Presumably they wanted to see whether the Greens would respond – and if not, they at least drove up the price of the coalition negotiations. The CDU can now get a lot out of it. It won’t be the Prime Minister’s Office, but it will have the same number of ministries as the Greens and will certainly also have substantive concessions.

The next state election in Rhineland-Palatinate is scheduled for March 22nd. How do you view it?

Ainetter: It will be a close race again, this time between the CDU and the SPD with Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer. I see more pressure on him to defend the office than on the CDU to win it back for itself.

What are the requirements for Schweitzer?

Ainetter: He is as popular as Özdemir. But Schweitzer cannot easily distance himself from the SPD because he is its deputy federal chairman. He is therefore to some extent responsible for the disastrous situation of the party in general.

Did the SPD deal appropriately with its historic defeat in Baden-Württemberg?

Ainetter: There is this picture in which top candidate Andreas Stoch looks close to tears at his poor bouquet of flowers, while party leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil try to cheer him up. The picture is symbolic for the SPD. And because it represents the defeats and sadness in this party, the SPD should not have allowed this image to emerge like that.

What would you advise the SPD now?

Ainetter: I don’t want to give the SPD any advice from outside. Just an observation: The SPD has some cool, young MPs. In the last legislative session, Emily Vontz was the youngest representative. She was a fresh talent – but didn’t run again. A party like the SPD must do everything to ensure that its talented young people stay with it and play a larger role at some point. At the moment we don’t know what the SPD stands for. Not because there are hardly any influential people in the party.