Polling stations open in Rhineland-Palatinate

Sunday, March 22, 8 a.m.: In Rhineland-Palatinate, the polling stations are open for the state elections. People have been able to cast their votes since 8 a.m. Almost three million citizens aged 18 and over are entitled to vote. The polling stations are open until 6 p.m.

The Election decides on the composition of the new state parliament in Mainz and thus also indirectly about whether Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) will be confirmed in office. The successor to Malu Dreyer (also SPD) is facing the voters’ vote for the first time. His challenger Gordon Schnieder wants to lead the CDU back into the state chancellery after 35 years.

A continuation of the traffic light government is unlikely. The FDP is unlikely to make it past the five percent hurdle. A grand coalition is most likely. Who could lead this is an open question.

Close race expected between CDU and SPD

Saturday, March 21st, 5:20 p.m.: It is the second of five state elections taking place this year. According to surveys, a close race is expected for the CDU with leading candidate Gordon Schnieder and Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer’s SPD for election victory. Schweitzer has been at the head of a traffic light government with the Greens and FDP since 2024. He took over the alliance after the resignation of his SPD predecessor Malu Dreyer.

In the ZDF political barometer from Thursday the CDU is just ahead. Strong growth is expected for the AfD, while the SPD is threatened with a historically poor result, according to surveys. The Greens can probably maintain their result from 2021. Free voters and leftists must fear their entry into the state parliament. For the Left, it would be the first time that it gets over the five percent hurdle. The co-ruling FDP was not shown separately in the surveys.

What is the election about?

The SPD has ruled the structurally conservative Rhineland-Palatinate for 35 years. After Prime Minister Malu Dreyer resigns in the summer of 2024, her successor, Alexander Schweitzer (52), the citizens’ vote for the first time. His challenger is the CDU party and parliamentary group leader Gordon Schnieder. The 50-year-old from the Eifel is the younger brother of Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder (also CDU).

For the SPD in the federal government, a CDU election victory would be a bitter defeat. Schweitzer is also deputy federal party leader. For the CDU, the role of junior partner in the government after decades in the opposition would be a success.

A coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP has been governing Rhineland-Palatinate for ten years. After the traffic lights went out in the federal government, this constellation hardly has a chance in the state either. Because the three partners in Mainz worked together quietly in public, Schweitzer liked to talk about the “good traffic light” in contrast to the federal government. He would like to continue this alliance, but according to surveys, the FDP will no longer be represented in the new state parliament.

How is Rhineland-Palatinate doing?

Some of the most indebted municipalities are in Rhineland-Palatinate – Schweitzer has made this one of his main topics – even as chairman of the Prime Minister’s Conference. In terms of crime statistics, Rhineland-Palatinate is one of the safest federal states.

In view of the growing concern about industrial jobs and energy-intensive sectors, the economy is fighting against the state traffic light climate protection law, which stipulates greenhouse gas neutrality as early as 2040, five years earlier than the federal government. The winegrowers in the state with the largest vineyard areas are suffering from the wine crisis.

Every fourth euro from the state budget goes towards education. The number of teachers was increased to 45,000. Several cases of violence, especially at hotspot schools, as well as a high number of children at risk of being transferred to a primary school in Ludwigshafen caused a nationwide stir. The ban on unannounced homework checks at school met with a mixed response.

What might a new government look like?

A government of SPD and CDU or CDU and SPD is very likely. Before the election, Schweitzer had ruled out joining a CDU-led state government as a minister in the event of defeat.

A government made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left would also be theoretically possible. To do this, the Left would have to enter the state parliament for the first time and even then it probably wouldn’t be enough mathematically. In recent polls the party was at five percent. Neither the SPD nor the Greens are striving for such an alliance.

It is also unlikely that the Free Voters will join a government as a third partner. During their first electoral term in the state parliament, they fell out so much that in the end they were no longer a faction, but just a parliamentary group. In recent surveys they were around five percent or just below.

The SPD and CDU have ruled out a government with the AfD.

Who can vote?

The voting age remains 18 years old – unlike in Baden-Württemberg. Several attempts by the traffic light government to lower the voting age to 16 failed because the required two-thirds majority was not achieved. The CDU and AfD are against it.

Every voter has two votes. The first vote decides on the direct candidates, the second vote on the parties. Twelve parties are up for election. 101 representatives are elected.

How strong is the AfD?

The AfD wants to top the result in Baden-Württemberg of 18.8 percent and thus become stronger than in all other western federal states. Top candidate and state leader Jan Bollinger has set a target of 20 percent plus X – more than twice as much as five years ago (8.3 percent). Despite internal power struggles, a change at the top and party departures, she ranks at 19 percent in surveys.

Who makes up the AfD Rhineland-Palatinate?

According to the Ministry of the Interior, the AfD regional association is “organically fully integrated into the entire party, participates in forming the opinion of the entire party, shares the political orientation of the party and its members express themselves in an attributable manner, some of which are extremist.” Unlike in other federal states, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution does not divide cases into test cases, suspected cases and confirmed extremist efforts.

The Bundestag member Sebastian Münzenmaier is considered the most influential representative from Rhineland-Palatinate in the federal government, and Alexander Jungbluth in the European Parliament. In the debate about the employment of relatives, the focus is on the Parliamentary Managing Director of the state parliamentary group, Damian Lohr. His mother has been working in the parliamentary group for ten years, his sister is assistant to the Hessian AfD parliamentary group leader Robert Lambrou and his stepfather works for the city parliamentary group in the Wiesbaden town hall.