In week three of Iran-War we talk to the political scientist and US expert Thomas Jäger about what he had already predicted on the first day: Will the war be for the US president? Donald Trump a bigger problem than expected? Did Trump misjudge or even overestimate himself?

“It’s a disaster from day one,” says Jäger in an interview with FOCUS online. The main reason for this is a lack of planning and incorrect warfare.

Expert Jäger: Trump is making the Putin mistake

The USA had started a war “that the Iranians are not waging.” While Washington relies on classic military superiority, Tehran acts asymmetrically. For the expert, Trump repeats a classic mistake (from minute 7:20 in the video). The president went in “over-optimistic.”

Trump’s expectation was: military superiority, a rapid collapse of the regime, and a popular uprising. Jäger draws the comparison: This is “similar to how Vladimir Putin ordered the attack on Kiev.”

One thing is clear: Despite massive attacks, the regime still appears to be in control, the global economy is increasingly in turmoil and the conflict has long since spread regionally.

Asymmetric war hits the USA

Jäger clearly puts the military successes into perspective. The Iranian air force was not a decisive factor: “It was a scrap air force.” What is more important is that Iran fights differently: with drones, cyber attacks and attacks that are difficult to predict.

Trump’s thinking errors

A central problem, according to Jäger: To date, the USA has not defined a clear war goal. Nuclear program, missiles, regime change, the line is unclear.

Even thousands of attacks do little to change this. “A regime doesn’t collapse when the leadership is gone,” said Jäger.

What should have gone differently

According to Jäger, a continuation of the “shadow war” that Israel in particular has been waging against Iran for 47 years would have been more promising, according to Jäger: with cyber attacks and targeted operations instead of open escalation.

In addition, a crucial point was missed: organizing the opposition in Iran. The hope of a spontaneous uprising by an unarmed population was naive.