It’s hard to imagine a crisis that could more derail Donald Trump’s US presidency than his ill-advised war against Iran. Within a few weeks, the situation has gotten worse, Trump is coming under more and more pressure – now he is threatening to do so because of the unchanged situation in the Strait of Hormuz Iran with an ultimatum. Three weeks after the outbreak of the war, further escalation is to be feared.

Even an improbable end to the conflict very soon would change Trump’s second term in office. If the war drags on for months, it could even bring them down.

In the video: Hormuz ultimatum is the stupidest thing Trump could come up with

Because the conflict with Iran weakens Trump’s three greatest political strengths:

1. His ability to impose his own reality on the world.

2. His uncompromising use of power.

3. His dominance over the Republican Party.

Trump’s entire policy depends on the strength he draws from his successes. For Trump, almost everything he does is a success. But if he now looks like a loser in the Iran war, even more retaliation can be expected. A weaker president could become an even more dangerous one.

Despite the widespread destruction of infrastructure and the murder of high-ranking executives – including security chief Ali Larijani – the Iranian regime is still holding out for the time being, and the approximately 400 kilos of almost weapons-grade uranium are still untraceable.

If anything, time is on Iran’s side. The United States and Israel will gradually run out of suitable targets for air strikes or will run out of interceptor missiles to counter Iranian weapons.

In contrast, Iran still appears to have plenty of drones. As long as he restricts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will rise and the damage to the global economy will increase.

Iran has negotiating power and is building leverage

Trump’s second superpower is his leverage. As other countries’ leaders now expect harsh treatment, they are learning to defend themselves.

Likewise, Iran is resisting Trump by building up leverage against him. In recent days, Iran has signaled that it will allow ships from friendly countries safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a sign that the Gulf state wants to use access as a negotiating tool.

Even if Trump wanted to end the war, Iran could continue to fire on ships. If the waterway remains closed until the end of April, oil prices could reach $150 a barrel.

Given this bargaining power, Iran could demand more than just a return to the prewar status quo. He could demand the lifting of sanctions or a commitment from the US to give up some bases in the Middle East or to keep Israel in check.

Trump’s last power is crumbling

If America were to face a recession and the stock market began to fall, would Trump escalate the situation by, for example, occupying Kharg Island, where Iran’s export terminals are located? Or would he give in?

The answer depends in part on his ultimate power: his influence over his party. Trump was elected on a promise to protect voters from war and inflation. So far, 13 American soldiers have died; Ground operations in Iran to recover uranium or on Kharg would put many more at risk.

Average prices for gasoline and diesel have reached $3.88 and $5.09 per gallon, respectively, compared to $3.11 and $3.72 at Trump’s inauguration. Republican support for the war is strong but waning. A vocal faction of MAGA supporters, particularly Tucker Carlson, are talking about betrayal.

The Republicans are at risk of losing control in the midterm elections

Behind closed doors, many elected Republicans are simmering. Trump’s ignoring warnings about the Strait of Hormuz is indicative of his disdain for strategic thinking and his arrogance in believing he knows better than those who actually know.

It is now very likely that Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Your chances of losing the Senate have increased by ten percentage points to around 50 percent. The more severe the defeat, the more of a “lame duck” the president will be and the less influence he will have over who takes over the party.

Iran still holds the trump card

If the war drags on and leads to very high oil prices and collapsing stock markets, Trump could look for a way out and secure success elsewhere – for example in Cuba.

Markets would undoubtedly show relief if the fighting stopped. But Trump does not have full control of this war. The Iranian attack on the gas hub in Qatar shows that Iran still has trump cards.

And even if the fighting ends tomorrow, it could take four to six weeks for oil production to be restored, four to eight weeks for oil markets to calm down and two months for shipping traffic to return to normal.

The risk of renewed Iranian action would remain. Prices could remain high for months. Every day this happens weakens the president.

Leaving NATO, abandoning Ukraine? Trump could demonstrate lost strength abroad

Trump has the greatest freedom of action abroad. He could abandon NATO and abandon Ukraine to punish Europe. He could put pressure on Latin America in the name of fighting crime and drugs.

He could ask for money for the defense of Japan and South Korea. He will pursue a maximalist approach to tariffs. Even if he doesn’t succeed, it will further undermine America’s alliances, much to the delight of China and Russia.

But Trump also tends to lash out at home. He has already supported the idea of ​​revoking the broadcasting licenses of media outlets that criticize the war. He wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but his war makes that less likely – more clashes with the central bank are expected. He could target perceived enemies or send immigration agents to cities run by majority Democrats.

Trump could threaten to interfere in the midterm elections, either as a theatrics to anger his opponents or because he intends to influence the results. It is hard to imagine how Trump could emerge victorious in Iran. Be warned: he is a very sore loser.