The Iran war has put the global oil market on alert. This brings a central question into focus: How badly will the escalation affect the German economy – and which countries could compensate for possible failures on the oil market? What is important is not only who can produce more, but also which safe transport routes the oil takes to Europe.

Oil is and remains a central cost factor for industry, logistics and chemical production. A look at Germany’s most important oil suppliers shows that this risk exists primarily indirectly for the Federal Republic.

Germany’s oil: these are the most important supplier countries

The good news first: German demand for crude oil has recently fallen – and with it dependency. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, Germany imported a total of 75.7 million tons of crude oil in 2025. Imports were therefore significantly below the level of previous years. The decline reflects efficiency gains, structural change in industry and the expansion of renewable energies.

Last year, Germany purchased most of its oil from Norway, closely followed by the USA and Libya. Only then will countries from the Middle East follow. This means that German supplies are more dependent on the North Sea, US and North African supply chains than on the Persian Gulf. But how safe are they?

Norway holds comparatively low strategic oil stocks because production is exported directly. The oil is stored primarily in offshore storage tanks and export terminals for short periods of time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Norway can hold several million barrels in terminal and offshore storage. The funding capacity is considered comparatively stable.

No sudden increase in production is expected in the short term. Norwegian energy policy aims at long-term stable production. New oil and gas projects usually take several years to reach full production.

Nevertheless, the country plays an important stabilizing role for Europe. Norway is also particularly important for Germany logistically: The oil usually arrives by tanker across the North Sea to European ports such as Rotterdam or Wilhelmshaven and is distributed from there via pipelines and refineries.

Norway remains a reliable supplier for Germany, but not a country that can significantly increase its oil production in the short term to compensate for shortfalls on the world market.

USA: Largest producer in the world

The United States has become the most important non-OPEC producer in recent years. American oil production reached a record level of around 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the US Department of Energy.

The USA also has large oil reserves. There are currently around 360 million barrels stored in the strategic oil reserve, plus around 430 to 450 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, these reserves primarily serve to ensure security of supply for the USA.

The majority comes from shale oil regions. This production technology offers a decisive advantage: shale oil wells can be started up more quickly than many conventional fields. Nevertheless, US producers are currently reacting cautiously to the price jump. And even if new drilling is started, significantly higher production would not come to market for several months.

The majority of US crude oil reaches Germany by sea. It is first loaded at large export terminals on the Gulf of Mexico and then transported on tankers across the Atlantic to Europe. It is comparatively politically stable and well secured. Important ports of arrival include Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Trieste in Italy. From there the oil travels via European pipeline networks to refineries in various countries, including Germany.

Libya: High capacity, political risk

Libya is an important supplier from North Africa for Germany. The country produced an average of around 1.37 million barrels of oil per day in 2025 – the highest in more than a decade.

Libya’s exact stockpiles are not public, but estimates put the number at tens of millions of barrels of terminal capacity. These warehouses are primarily used for interim storage before export.

In the long term, the country could increase its production capacity. International energy companies are planning additional investments in existing fields and new projects that could potentially increase production by several hundred thousand barrels per day.

Libyan oil is usually exported through Mediterranean ports. Tankers transport it to refineries in southern Europe, particularly Italy, France or Spain. From there, some of it travels via the European pipeline and refinery system to Central Europe – including Germany.

The transport routes are relatively short, but are considered less predictable than supply chains from more stable production regions due to the political instability in the country.

Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia: Alternative routes are not enough

The current crisis shows that it is not just the amount of funding that is crucial. The functionality of the transport routes is much more important. In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is the most important bottleneck in the world oil market. About a fifth of global oil trade typically passes through this strait.

Although the region plays a smaller role for Germany than for many other EU states, it is not entirely insignificant. Even if alternative routes are used for oil imports from Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, they can only replace part of the transport volume.

A total of around 7.7 million barrels per day could be transported via the Suez Canal – which connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean – and the route over the Bab al Mandab strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, which forms the access from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, according to an analysis by “S&P Gloabl”. However, this only corresponds to around 40 percent of Hormuz’s capacity. It is said that there is no equivalent alternative route for the remaining part.

Pipelines can take over some of the deliveries. However, they are firmly built between certain production areas and export ports and can neither be expanded nor converted to other transport routes in the short term. Alternative sea routes also pose their own risks, for example due to political tensions in the Red Sea or new logistical bottlenecks.

In short: If the Strait of Hormuz fails, the flow of oil cannot easily be redirected.

Germany is thus indirectly affected, even though its most important supplier countries are not in the Persian Gulf. Because oil is traded worldwide: If supply decreases due to failures in one region, the price rises for all buyers. This also makes deliveries from Norway, the USA and Libya more expensive. For Germany, this means higher costs for energy, transport and industrial production.